Boeing raises forecast for aircraft demand

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Boeing has increased its forecast for aircraft demand over the next two decades but has said uncertainty in the global economy will weigh on orders until 2014, as it cut its estimate for sales in North America and the Middle East.

The world’s second-biggest jet-maker by revenues said airline traffic would grow by 5 per cent a year until 2031, leading to a doubling of air travel. Boeing said manufacturers would deliver 34,000 new aircraft valued at some $4.5tn over that period, up from the 33,500 jets it forecast in last year’s 20-year industry outlook.

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However, the company was more cautious about the short term, indicating that uncertainty fuelled by the eurozone crisis could depress sales over the next two years.

“The forecast reflects the economic struggles we see today in some of the mature markets,” said Randy Tinseth, Boeing’s vice-president of marketing. “The economic growth rate for this forecast is down.”

“We’re looking at a world economy, where especially over the next few years, we slog through the situation here in Europe and then once you get into the 2014 timeframe and beyond, you see more normal economic growth,” Mr Tinseth said. “What we are experiencing now will be normal for the next one-two years.”

Boeing expects narrow-body, single-aisled aircraft, such as its 737 and Airbus’s A320, to make up the biggest share of the aircraft fleet over the next 20 years, although it trimmed its forecast slightly from last year.

The US manufacturer said it expected a market for 23,240 narrow-bodies worth some $2.03tn over the next two decades, down from last year’s estimate of 23,370 aircraft. Boeing also pared its estimate for sales of large wide-bodied jets, saying it expected 790 deliveries worth $280bn, down from last year’s forecast of 820 aircraft.

On the other hand, Boeing boosted its outlook for sales of smaller twin-aisled aircraft such as its 777,767 and 787 Dreamliner. The company said it expects 7,950 deliveries valued at about $2.08tn, up from its estimate of 7,330 aircraft last year.

Boeing sees the strongest demand coming from Asia, where customers will buy some 12,030 new aircraft by 2031, up more than 5 per cent from last year’s forecast.

European buyers are expected to take delivery of some 7,760 new aircraft over the next two decades, Boeing said, while North American customers will buy 7,290 jets, down more than 3 per cent from last year’s forecast. The group also downgraded its outlook for sales in the Middle East, where it expects demand for 2,370 aircraft, some 6 per cent fewer than in last year’s forecast.

Boeing cut its forecast for the freighter market, saying it expected sales of 3,200 aircraft by 2031, down from the 3,500 it estimated last year.

As well as meeting increased air traffic demand, Boeing reckons that some 41 per cent of new deliveries will replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft now in operation.

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