The
Vijay Mallya-led Kingfisher Airlines may be struggling to stitch
together a flight plan to stay afloat. Jet Airways could be facing tax
problems of its own. Five out of the six Indian carriers have posted
losses over the last three quarters.
But
chieftains of global aviation industry describe this phase as but
another "air pocket," which will soon pass and clear the runway for
domestic aviation to take off on a more sustainable growth path.
This,
clearly, was the postscript of the five-day 'India Aviation 2012' that
recently concluded in Hyderabad, attracting global players in the
airlines, airport and engine manufacturing sectors.
A stellar period
Indeed,
the Indian aviation sector gained substantial altitude during the
Eleventh Plan period, climbing to the perch of the ninth largest civil
aviation market in 2011.
Not
only did passenger throughput swell from 73 million in 2005-06 to about
150 million last year, but this period also saw four international
airports getting completed.
The
investment made by private airport operators was about Rs 30,000 crore
in the last five years, involving greenfield airports in Hyderabad and
Bangalore and modernisation of Delhi and Mumbai airports. Not only this,
by 2011, five Indian carriers were operating on international routes
and India had bilateral agreements with 104 countries.
But,
aviation experts maintain, this is only the beginning of the Indian
aviation story. India now plans to be among the top three aviation
markets by 2020.
Aviation
players see this as an achievable goal, given the right policy
initiatives and a stronger Government-industry interaction. Boeing
estimates that travel to, from and within South Asia is expected to
achieve an average annual growth rate of 8.1 per cent in the next 20
years, outpacing growth in all other regions.
Airbus
has revised its market forecast for India, stating that the country
will require 1,040 aircraft worth $145 billion in the next 20 years. A
KPMG-FICCI report shows that the Indian aviation industry is today worth
$12 billion, with the airlines and airport segment constituting about
four-fifths of this. And investments worth $50 billion are envisaged in
the next five years or so.
Estimates
from the Airport Authority of India and the private sector indicate
that Indian airports would require an investment of about Rs 65,000
crore during the next Plan Period, of which Rs 50,000 crore will come
from the private sector.
While
Indian carriers plan to increase their fleet size to 800 in the next
five years, the general aviation sector is likely to see $4.3-billion
worth investment, with the addition of 300 business jets, 300 small
aircraft and 250 helicopters.
Bumps on the way
But
despite the global optimism, the flight path for this sector is not
without its turbulence. Supply outstripping demand, spiralling jet fuel
prices, rupee depreciation, stiff interest regime and intense
competition are some of the factors that have kept profitability of
Indian carriers under severe duress.
The
KPMG report points out that five out of the six Indian carriers have
posted losses over the last three quarters - some have not been able to
net a profit ever since their operations began. All the three listed
carriers have posted consecutive losses for the three quarters of the
current fiscal, piling up crushing debts.
"Between
2008-09 and 2010-11, Indian carriers, barring Air India, have
accumulated losses of about Rs 10,000 crore. And that this is happening
despite an over 15 per cent annual growth in passenger traffic points
towards systemic flaws in the industry," it says.
Kingfisher
Airlines' woes are well-known, having come to such a boil that doubts
are being whispered on how long Mr Mallya could remain in the cockpit.
Doubtless,
high cost of air turbine fuel (ATF) has been the cardinal dampener. ATF
accounts for more than 50 per cent of airlines' operating cost, while
it is half of this in other countries. Sales tax in Gujarat for instance
is as high as 30 per cent, while it is 29 per cent in Tamil Nadu and
Madhya Pradesh.
According
to KPMG analysts, ATF in India is nearly 60 per cent costlier than
competing hubs such as Dubai, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. The Government
has agreed to the airlines' demand for direct import of the fuel. But,
the KPMG reports says, this may actually bruise India's brand image.
ATF import will hurt
"India
is an ATF-surplus country that exported nearly 45 per cent of its ATF
production in 2010. It may appear strange that airlines in an
ATF-surplus country end up importing fuel just to work around the
prevailing taxation policies," it says.
And
direct import of the fuel may not be as promising for airlines as it
sounds. For, carriers will have to depend on oil companies, which could
charge a premium for handling imported ATF.
"There
is also the risk that some State Governments may put entry taxes on
imported ATF once they realise their tax revenues are being
compromised," the report points out.
What,
then, is the way forward? Notification of ATF under the 'declared
goods' category with a uniform application of 4 per cent sales tax,
improvement of air connectivity to tier-2 and -3 cities, implementation
of the 49 per cent foreign direct investment limit policy, close
collaborations among Ministries related to the sector, development of
regional airports and promotion of allied sectors such as maintenance,
repair and overhaul could be some of the starters.